This is unfair, we have done all the hard work, we haven't had a case here in weeks, it all down in South Wales.
These are some of the comments on social media today talking about the changes to Christmas plans and bringing forward Level 4 restrictions but the reality is we do need to act now.
Here are a number of reasons why?
Vaccinations: Over 50% of Llandrindod residents are in one or more of the categories that are in the first set of priorities for vaccination. When that is complete the risk to others in town will significantly reduce but until then the town which currently has a 0 fatality rate is seriously at risk if infection were to take hold.
Rurality: Our relative remoteness has kept us safe with residents able to shop in town but in the event of an outbreak we are reliant on space at Hereford Hospital go further south and its Merthyr, Morriston and the Grange that take out patients. All these hospitals are working at or close to capacity at the moment due to local infection rates.
Complacency: a number of recent outbreaks have been linked to lax social distancing and gatherings. I know of plenty of local residents who now are far less strict on themselves and visiting family and friends has become common. I'm not apportioning blame but just stating a fact. That lack of a wake up call a small contained cluster in one estate leaves us vulnerable to a larger outbreak.
The new strain: Scientists this evening were unable to give an absolute figure on how much more infectious the new strain is nor what its native R is all they were prepared to say is that it is at least 70% more infectious and has a native R at least 0.4 higher than previous variants. We saw what this means in Kent where it broke though and expanded in the middle of the English firebreak. In South Wales it has expanded rapidly and the new hospitality changes have barely slowed it. Hospitals are reporting whole households being admitted.
Local infection: Radnorshire has currently one of the lowest rates in the country but Powys wide our rate is over 210 cases per 100k double what it was 10 days before. A lot of this is due to infections spiralling in Ystradgynlais but there are steady increased across all of southern Breconshire.
Taken together this means we have a choice we can opt for a couple of weeks of freedom while we allow the virus to establish itself before locking down. In justifying that we can point to the advances in treatment and the lower number of fatalities in patients entering ICU but there need to be ICU beds available to go into without them fatality rates increase rapidly. Far better to reduce the risk of getting to that position.
I'll finish with a story of an friend in emergency planning who was faced with a colleague refusing to supply a list of names that were at risk of death in an exercise. "I will happily defend myself for a data protection breach if they sue me after the event because it means I have done my job and they are alive to do so"
Today in supporting this lockdown I choose life and will continue working with colleagues to gain the support our businesses need to survive as they have to close once more.
Over the coming weeks please join with me as we work to together again to to keep everyone in town safe and well while they wait to be called for vaccination.
This is not a false alarm, This is not a test, Nowhere we can fly away, nowhere we can rest, The party is disrupted by an uninvited guest. - Red Tide (Rush)
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