You could be forgiven looking at the media for thinking Covid is a thing of the past, no mention is made of the 35-40k cases each day nor that just under 1000 people are dying each week. As a country, we have been normalised to the belief that vaccines prevent hospitalisation and death and that children are somehow immune to the nastier aspects of the virus.
We have to be otherwise we would be up in arms at the fact that over half the infections confirmed each day are in the school-age population. But what is the truth behind the figures and where are we in Powys at present?
One of the benefits of being a scrutiny chair is that you can gain access to more detailed information, one of the curses is that you cant share the raw data. I am in that position now.
So let me share with you some edited highlights of what I know based on all the information sources I can see.
First up we are experiencing some of the highest levels of infection on an all-Powys basis. Yesterdays 7 day rate at 461 exceeds the previous highest full week figure set between the 12 and 19th September and is double the rate we saw as fallout from the Christmas relaxation.
Next over half the confirmed cases are in the school-age population. This is a national picture and Powys is no different. Just as we saw in December and across the UK at the start of the school holidays there are drivers around schools that drive infection forward.
This has been made worse by the policy from Welsh Government to require pupils who themselves are household contacts of cases to come into school and only under pressure have they now somewhat belatedly insisted on daily lateral flow tests.
This means we are facing a situation where pupils are becoming ill some severely some sadly fatally making all activities outside the school yards a risk too.
So what can be done? Firstly we need more information. I have made a request for infection age vs time heat maps to be shared to help the public know the risks. I have also asked for the council to look for patterns in breakthrough infections within its workforce to look for evidence of vaccine waning and also amongst school absences to try to identify patterns of long covid.
Second, we all again can play our part. If you have not been vaccinated or have been called up for a booster please take it as soon as you can. You will hear anti vaxers claim that the long term impacts of the vaccine are unknown yet no long term effects have emerged almost 12 months on from the first mass vaccination programmes in contrast millions globally are living with Long Covid. You will hear talk of the myocarditis risk in children which whilst present is mild and treatable, unlike the virus-induced myocarditis that killed a previously healthy 15-year-old from Southampton.
Third, We can all increase our guard as we go about our day to day life. That means masks in supermarkets, whilst walking around in pubs and in other public places. It also means masks when in a car taking mixed households to rugby or football matches.
It means thinking and planning could I do my shopping once a week not daily? Can I meet a friend for a walk outside rather than a coffee in a crowded living room?
No one wants a return to lockdown but without simple measures to protect from covid that will also limit the spread of flu that is the very direction we could head in to protect the NHS from being overrun by a combined Flu/Covid wave . One final thought, this time last year Caerphilly had been placed in a local lockdown with cases at 50/100k of the population. Yesterday the Powys rate was 9x that. We have our freedoms but with freedoms come responsibilities with so many unknowns out there perhaps we should once again make some small changes for the benefit of everyone we meet as they will for you.
Comments