The exact situation across Wales has been rather muddied by the Christmas period, Hence my silence however new data emerging has begun to make things clearer. Firstly looking back ONS data released last week showed a lower prevalence of the VOC202012/01 variant in South Wales than previously thought It has been a factor in the growth in December but not the main driver of this phase of the pandemic. This means the fall in South Wales after schools and Unis finished and hospitality closed means those measures can deal with the autumn strain but cannot conclusively be said to contain VO202012/01.
Turning now to the local situation
After a quiet spell throughout most of December with rates in the 0-2 range across Mid Powys the situation is now far less stable. Current 7 day levels in Llandrindod are now at 34 and at 21 days 43 this is over half of the 77 cases confirmed in the Town since the start of the pandemic (not all cases in spring were confirmed) This rise peaked in data two days ago and figures have dropped off but the next 3 days will be crucial. Further afield all the surrounding areas are showing significant increases but at this point none have become longer terms outbreaks suggesting the Powys TTP is still containing incidents before they become embedded into the community
So the big question has to be why?
The timeframe for these case is consistent with infection around or on Christmas Day but without TTP data it is not worth speculating at this point. Of greater concern is has the new variant arrived in town.
Having looked at the data released at the Welsh government press conference today I regretfully have to say the answer is yes. In that conference the following pair of maps was shown.
From these maps you can see immediately there is a significant spread in the distribution of the new variant and the medical officers confirmed it is now present in 70% of N Wales infections making it the dominant strain. However it is at lower levels elsewhere in Wales.
If we zoom in on these maps (sorry for poor quality) you can see that while there were a few cases involving this variant before the 6th Dec the distribution has significantly increased since then. The latest map (right) shows quite clearly that the recent increase in cases post Christmas are being driven by the new variant, This is quite significant for our area as we know that this strain is more infectious, The question left is how much more infectious. Here the Jury is still out but there is a hint in a graph Welsh Government released on Monday.
This shows the case rates per 100k this autumn by Health Board Area. Coming out of the firebreak all the areas follow the same profile just at different rates until early December. At that point as the hospitality restrictions were introduced and students returned home and schools were closed the increase in social control measures that this represents clearly bought the R level significantly below 1 and rates significantly declined though to Christmas. The latter part of this decline may be a due to reduced testing but the testing rates were stable for the first 7 days.
The exception was in Betsi Cadwallader (North Wales) where there has been a steady and accelerating rise.
Now at this point I move to my interpretation. Looking at the maps there is a clear and significant increase on COV202012/01 in Wrexham and the border towns of Flintshire which has extended along the A55 coastal towns. Looking closer the A55 is marked out by infection all the way to Holyhead and the other significant roads in the area are also visible. In short we are seeing a classic pattern of an emergent virus. Establishing in a core area then spreading out via a series of seeding events along the main communication networks.
It is too soon to say that this strain will continue to grow during lockdown not least because of the Christmas Day mixing will have created a surge in infection. However, the pre Christmas data in North Wales suggests that it is a marginal call on the question is R below 1 at present in N Wales.
So what does all this mean.
First up vaccination is moving forward and Powys is ahead in terms of per head inoculation compared to most of Wales. In time that should help to reduce R but not for several weeks yet. It will also help reduce the severity of infections in the same time frame. These are all positives.
However we have to get there first
So some key points
VOC202012/01 is involved in some cases within Radnorshire in recent days.
This variant is more infectious that previous strains this means that previous measures may not be enough to keep R below 1.
Powys TTP is one of the best in the country and HAS contained clusters in recent weeks which almost certainly involve this variant.
And that means we all need to keep working together So I ask you
Please cut down all unnecessary social contact during this lockdown.
If you are in a bubble please think carefully about meeting up in the open air to reduce your risk.
Please limit shopping trips and if you can shop in the evening do so to spread out the numbers in store at any one time.
Please reach out to anyone you were helping with shopping or picking up medication in the spring and see if they need that help again.
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