I had planned to write this week about how we can keep Llandrindod Covid secure and enjoy as much as Christmas as we can. However there is now strong circumstantial evidence that the significant acceleration of infection in Kent and South Wales is due to the emergence of a new and potentially more infectious strain of the virus. This remains unconfirmed at present as is the impact of this strain on the need for hospitalisation and mortality.
The emergence of a more infectious variant has been an ongoing concern of everyone involved in pandemic management and if confirmed changes the environment completely. We know at the moment that this was present in Kent and Wales in November and has been found in samples from 60 council area.
While the focus here has been on the Valleys and questions about was lockdown eased too fast it is worth reflecting on the fact that the Kent and subsequent Essex and East London cases started to rise in the middle of the English lock down. That means that the measures in place at the time were proving to be insufficient to prevent the spread of the virus. Obviously this has significant implications for infection control and possible preventative measures. We still have time before we need to make final decisions about Christmas so I hope our politicians use that well. At present I would be minded to pull back on some of the relaxation but before I made a final decision I would want an answer to the following questions.
1 IS the current spread due to this strain? (genome analysis of recent cases can prove this)
2 Are there more members in the household catching this than previous strains (NHS/TTP data should answer this)
3 Are people with this strain more or less likely to end up in hospital (genome and NHS data can answer this) 4 Is there evidence of increased mortality (its likely too soon to know)
5 How extensive is this virus in the community (NHS/Genome analysis can answer this)
So it should be possible to answer 4 of these 5 key questions. Until we have those answers I personally would advise avoiding all but essential travel to South Wales or London and I would be putting any Christmas plans that involve meeting people from outside the immediate area on hold while the situation develops.
While I have been writing this piece there has been one Rolling Stones refrain floating around in my head that is highly pertinent,
"You can't always get what you want
You can't always get what you want
You can't always get what you want
But if you try sometimes you just might find
You get what you need"
We might want to spend Christmas with our family but we definitely need to ensure they are fit and healthy in the New Year.
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